CFP last date
20 January 2025
Reseach Article

A Decision tree- Rough set Hybrid System for Stock Market Trend Prediction

by Binoy.B.Nair, V.P Mohandas, N. R. Sakthivel
International Journal of Computer Applications
Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Volume 6 - Number 9
Year of Publication: 2010
Authors: Binoy.B.Nair, V.P Mohandas, N. R. Sakthivel
10.5120/1106-1449

Binoy.B.Nair, V.P Mohandas, N. R. Sakthivel . A Decision tree- Rough set Hybrid System for Stock Market Trend Prediction. International Journal of Computer Applications. 6, 9 ( September 2010), 1-6. DOI=10.5120/1106-1449

@article{ 10.5120/1106-1449,
author = { Binoy.B.Nair, V.P Mohandas, N. R. Sakthivel },
title = { A Decision tree- Rough set Hybrid System for Stock Market Trend Prediction },
journal = { International Journal of Computer Applications },
issue_date = { September 2010 },
volume = { 6 },
number = { 9 },
month = { September },
year = { 2010 },
issn = { 0975-8887 },
pages = { 1-6 },
numpages = {9},
url = { https://ijcaonline.org/archives/volume6/number9/1106-1449/ },
doi = { 10.5120/1106-1449 },
publisher = {Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA},
address = {New York, USA}
}
%0 Journal Article
%1 2024-02-06T19:54:55.706008+05:30
%A Binoy.B.Nair
%A V.P Mohandas
%A N. R. Sakthivel
%T A Decision tree- Rough set Hybrid System for Stock Market Trend Prediction
%J International Journal of Computer Applications
%@ 0975-8887
%V 6
%N 9
%P 1-6
%D 2010
%I Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Abstract

Prediction of stock market trends has been an area of great interest both to those who wish to profit by trading stocks in the stock market and for researchers attempting to uncover the information hidden in the stock market data. Applications of data mining techniques for stock market prediction, is an area of research which has been receiving a lot of attention recently. This work presents the design and performance evaluation of a hybrid decision tree- rough set based system for predicting the next days’ trend in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE-SENSEX). Technical indicators are used in the present study to extract features from the historical SENSEX data. C4.5 decision tree is then used to select the relevant features and a rough set based system is then used to induce rules from the extracted features. Performance of the hybrid rough set based system is compared to that of an artificial neural network based trend prediction system and a naive bayes based trend predictor. It is observed from the results that the proposed system outperforms both the neural network based system and the naive bayes based trend prediction system.

References
  1. Fama, E. F.,(1970), ‘Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work’, Journal of Finance, 25, pp. 383–417.
  2. Atsalakis G. S., and Valavanis K. P., (2009), ‘Surveying stock market forecasting techniques – part II: soft computing methods’, Expert Systems with Applications, vol.36, pp. 5932–5941.
  3. Saad E. W., Prokhorov D.V., and Wunsch, D.C., (1998), ‘Comparative study of stock trend prediction using time delay, recurrent and probabilistic neural networks’, IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, Vol. 9, No. 6, pp. 1456-1470.
  4. Lee, C-T., and Chen,Y-P. 2007. The efficacy of neural networks and simple technical indicators in predicting stock markets. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Convergence Information Technology, pp.2292-2297.
  5. Kuo, M-H., and Chen, C-L.2006. An ETF trading decision support system by using neural network and technical indicators. In Proceedings of the International Joint Conference on Neural Networks, pp. 2394-2401.
  6. Nagarajan,V., Wu,Y., Liu,M. and Wang Q-G. 2005. Forecast Studies for Financial Markets using Technical Analysis. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Control and Automation (ICCA2005), pp. 259-264.
  7. Bansal, Archit, Mishra ,Kaushik, Pachouri, Anshul, (2010), ‘Algorithmic Trading (AT) - Framework for Futuristic Intelligent Human Interaction with Small Investors’,, International Journal of Computer Applications, vol. 1, no. 21, pp.01-05.
  8. Chang, P.-C. , Liu, C.-H. , Lin, J.-L. , Fan, C.-Y. , & Celeste, S.P. Ng., (2009) , ‘A neural network with a case based dynamic window for stock trading prediction’, Expert Systems with Applications, vol.36, pp.6889–6898.
  9. Setty, Venugopal D., Rangaswamy, T.M. and Subramanya, K.N.,(2010), ‘A Review on Data Mining Applications to the Performance of Stock Marketing’, International Journal of Computer Applications, vol. 1, no. 3,pp.33-43.
  10. Wang, J-L. , and Chan, S-H.,(2006), ‘Stock market trading rule discovery using two-layer bias decision tree’, Expert Systems with Applications, 30, pp.605–611.
  11. Wu, M-C., Lin, S-Y., & Lin, C-H.,(2006) , ‘An effective application of decision tree to stock trading’, Expert Systems with Applications, 31, pp.270–274.
  12. Huang, K.Y, and Jane, C.-J., (2009), ‘A hybrid model for stock market forecasting and portfolio selection based on ARX, grey system and RS theories’, Expert Systems with Applications, 36, pp.5387–5392.
  13. Teoh, H. J., Cheng,C-H., Chu, H-H., and Chen, J-S., (2008), ‘Fuzzy time series model based on probabilistic approach and rough set rule induction for empirical research in stock markets’, Data & Knowledge Engineering, 67, pp.103–117.
  14. Eng,W.F. 1988 The Technical Analysis of Stocks, Options & Futures- Advanced Trading Systems and Techniques. Vision Books,India.
  15. www.trendwatch.co.uk
  16. Han, Jiawei and Kamber, Micheline 2006 Data Mining:Concepts and Techniques-Second Edition, Morgan Kaufmann,USA, pp 291-315.
  17. Jensen,R., & Shen, Q. 2008 Computational Intelligence And Feature Selection-Rough and Fuzzy Approaches, John Wiley & Sons.
Index Terms

Computer Science
Information Sciences

Keywords

Stock market Rough set decision tree artificial neural networks Technical indicators Rules