CFP last date
20 January 2025
Reseach Article

A Two Phase Algorithm for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting using Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques

by Usman Amjad, Tahseen A. Jilani, Farah Yasmeen
International Journal of Computer Applications
Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Volume 55 - Number 16
Year of Publication: 2012
Authors: Usman Amjad, Tahseen A. Jilani, Farah Yasmeen
10.5120/8842-3129

Usman Amjad, Tahseen A. Jilani, Farah Yasmeen . A Two Phase Algorithm for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting using Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques. International Journal of Computer Applications. 55, 16 ( October 2012), 34-40. DOI=10.5120/8842-3129

@article{ 10.5120/8842-3129,
author = { Usman Amjad, Tahseen A. Jilani, Farah Yasmeen },
title = { A Two Phase Algorithm for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting using Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques },
journal = { International Journal of Computer Applications },
issue_date = { October 2012 },
volume = { 55 },
number = { 16 },
month = { October },
year = { 2012 },
issn = { 0975-8887 },
pages = { 34-40 },
numpages = {9},
url = { https://ijcaonline.org/archives/volume55/number16/8842-3129/ },
doi = { 10.5120/8842-3129 },
publisher = {Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA},
address = {New York, USA}
}
%0 Journal Article
%1 2024-02-06T20:57:27.451752+05:30
%A Usman Amjad
%A Tahseen A. Jilani
%A Farah Yasmeen
%T A Two Phase Algorithm for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting using Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques
%J International Journal of Computer Applications
%@ 0975-8887
%V 55
%N 16
%P 34-40
%D 2012
%I Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Abstract

Fuzzy Time series is being used for forecasting since last two decades for forecasting. Nature inspired computing techniques like other domains are now being used for optimization purpose in Fuzzy Time Series forecasting models to get improved results. In this paper we have presented a new algorithm for multivariate fuzzy time series forecasting having two phases. Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization techniques are used in this algorithm for optimization. We applied our algorithm on Taiwan forex Exchange (TAIFEX) index and got better results and minimized error rate as compared to previous methods.

References
  1. Q. Song, B. S. Chissom, Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series Part I, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 54: 1-9.
  2. Q. Song, B. S. Chissom, Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series Part II, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 62: pp. 1-8, 1994.
  3. Chen, S. M. 1996. Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 81: 311-319.
  4. S. M. Chen, Forecasting enrollments based on high-order fuzzy time series, Cybernetics and Systems: An International Journal, Vol. 33: pp. 1-16, 2002.
  5. Chen, S. M. and Hsu, C. -C. 2004. A new method to forecasting enrollments using fuzzy time series, International
  6. K. Huarng, Heuristic models of fuzzy time series for forecasting, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 123, pp. 369-386, 2002.
  7. K. Huarng, Effective lengths of intervals to improve forecasting in fuzzy time series, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 12, pp. 387- 94, 2001.
  8. J. R. Hwang, S. M. Chen, C. H. Lee, Handling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 100, pp. 217-228, 1998.
  9. T. A. Jilani, S. M. A. Burney, C. Ardil, Fuzzy Metric Approach for Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting based on Frequency Density Based Partitioning, Proceedings of World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 23, pp. 333-338. , 2007.
  10. S. Melike, K. Y. Degtiarev, Forecasting Enrollment Model Based on First-Order Fuzzy Time Series, Proceedings of World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 1, pp. 1307-6884, 2005.
  11. S. Melike, Y. D. Konstsntin, Forecasting enrollment model based on first-order fuzzy time series, in proc. International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Istanbul, Turkey, 2004.
  12. S. M. Chen, J. R. Hwang, Temperature prediction using fuzzy time series, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part B: Cybernetics, Vol. 30, pp. 263-275, 2000.
  13. L. W. Lee, L. W. Wang, S. M. Chen, Handling forecasting problems based on two-factors high-order time series, IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 468-477, 2006.
  14. T. A. Jilani, S. M. A. Burney, M-factor high order fuzzy time series forecasting for road accident data, In IEEE-IFSA 2007, World Congress, Cancun, Mexico, June 18-21, Forthcoming in Book series Advances in Soft Computing, Springer-Verlag, 2007.
  15. T. A. Jilani, S. M. A. Burney, C. Ardil, Multivariate high order fuzzy time series forecasting for car road accidents, International Journal of Computational Intelligence, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 15-20. , 2007.
  16. T. A. Jilani, S. M. A. Burney, A refined fuzzy time series model for stock market forecasting, Physica-A 387 (2008c) 2857-2862.
  17. I-H. Kuo, S. -J. Horng, T. -W. Kao, T. -L. Lin, C. -L. Lee, Y. Pan, An improved method for forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization, Expert Systems with Applications 36(3), (2009) 6108–6117
  18. Y. -L. Huang, S. -J. Horng, M. He, P. Fan, T. -W. Kao, M. K. Khan, J. -L. Lai, I-H. Kuo, A hybrid forecasting model for enrollments based on aggregated fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization, Expert Systems with Applications 38(7), (2011) 8014–8023
  19. J. -I. Park, D. -J. Lee, C. -K. Song, M. -G. Chun, TAIFEX and KOSPI 200 forecasting based on two-factors high-order fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization, Expert Systems with Applications 37(2), (2010) 959–967
  20. T. A. Jilani, S. M. A. Burney, U. Amjad and T. A. Siddiqui. , A Particle Swarm Intelligence based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model. International Journal of Computer Applications 38(10), (2012) 47-52
  21. Jilani T. A. , Nikol Mastorakis, Usman Amjad (2012), " A Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization Based Fuzzy Time Series Model TAIFEX and KSE-100 Forecasting", NAUN-First International Confernce on Biological Inspired Computation, University of Algaro, Portugal, 22-24, May-2012.
  22. Jilani T. A. , J. Jaffar, Usman Amjad, H. Saima (2012), "An Improved Heuristic-Based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model Using Genetic Algorithm", ICCIS-2012, Petronas, Malaysia.
  23. L. A. Zadeh, "Fuzzy sets," Information and Control, vol. 8, 1996, pp. 338-353.
  24. Q. Song, B. S. Chissom, Fuzzy time series and its models, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 54, pp. 269-277, 1993.
  25. Goldberg D. E. , 1989. Genetic algorithm in search, optimization, and machine learning, Addison-Wesley, Massachusetts.
  26. Goldberg D. E. , Korb B. , Deb K. , 1989. Messy genetic algorithms: motivation, analysis, and first results, Complex Systems 3 (5), pp. 493–530.
  27. J. Kennedy and R. Eberhart. Swarm Intelligence. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, Inc. , San Francisco, CA, 2001.
  28. Lee L. -W. , Wang L. -H. , Chen S. -M. , 2007. Temperature prediction and TAIFEX forecasting based on fuzzy logical relationships and genetic algorithms, Expert Systems with Applications 33, 2007, pp. 539- 550.
  29. T. A. Jilani, S. M. A. Burney, C. Ardil, A New Quantile Based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model, International Journal of Intelligent Systems and Technologies 3 (4), (2008d), pp. 201-207.
  30. Wang N. -Y. , Chen S. -M. , 2009. Temperature prediction and TAIFEX forecasting based on automatic clustering techniques and two-factors high-order fuzzy time series , Expert Systems with Applications, 36(2), pp. 2143-2154.
Index Terms

Computer Science
Information Sciences

Keywords

Fuzzy time series two-factor high-order fuzzy logical relationships Genetic Algorithm Particle Swarm Optimization TAIFEX index