We apologize for a recent technical issue with our email system, which temporarily affected account activations. Accounts have now been activated. Authors may proceed with paper submissions. PhDFocusTM
CFP last date
20 December 2024
Reseach Article

Application of Logistic Regression to Predict Over Target Baseline of Software Projects

by R. Chandrasekaran, R.venkatesh Kumar
International Journal of Computer Applications
Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Volume 44 - Number 10
Year of Publication: 2012
Authors: R. Chandrasekaran, R.venkatesh Kumar
10.5120/6296-8493

R. Chandrasekaran, R.venkatesh Kumar . Application of Logistic Regression to Predict Over Target Baseline of Software Projects. International Journal of Computer Applications. 44, 10 ( April 2012), 1-6. DOI=10.5120/6296-8493

@article{ 10.5120/6296-8493,
author = { R. Chandrasekaran, R.venkatesh Kumar },
title = { Application of Logistic Regression to Predict Over Target Baseline of Software Projects },
journal = { International Journal of Computer Applications },
issue_date = { April 2012 },
volume = { 44 },
number = { 10 },
month = { April },
year = { 2012 },
issn = { 0975-8887 },
pages = { 1-6 },
numpages = {9},
url = { https://ijcaonline.org/archives/volume44/number10/6296-8493/ },
doi = { 10.5120/6296-8493 },
publisher = {Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA},
address = {New York, USA}
}
%0 Journal Article
%1 2024-02-06T20:35:09.996458+05:30
%A R. Chandrasekaran
%A R.venkatesh Kumar
%T Application of Logistic Regression to Predict Over Target Baseline of Software Projects
%J International Journal of Computer Applications
%@ 0975-8887
%V 44
%N 10
%P 1-6
%D 2012
%I Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), NY, USA
Abstract

Earned Value Analysis (EVA) is a project management technique (Stephan and Mario, 2006). It is one of the most effective performance measurement tools for controlling and managing the development projects. EVAt assists, the project manager to cognize the project status and predicts future performance. The objective of this paper is to predict the Over Target Baseline (OTB) and Estimate At Completion (EAC) of the in-progress projects, based on the earned value analysis (EVA) using Logistic Regression techniques. For this purpose, we obtained ongoing data pertaining to projects from one of the major information technology (IT) company. The progressive estimates of projects, such as, baseline cost, Planned Value, Earned Value and Actual Cost are obtained for the real time data. This approach is applicable to have better forecast of the project cost and decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it could be beneficial for planning preventive actions.

References
  1. Air Force Cost Analysis Agency, 2007, Air Force Cost Analysis Handbook, Washington.
  2. Anbari, F. T. , 2003, Earned value project management method and extensions, Project Management Journal, Vol. 34, No. 4, pp. 12–23.
  3. Bembers, I. , Boord, M. , Byrnes, T. A. , Finefield, T. , Gran, W. , Haupt, E. , 2003, Over Target Baseline and Over Target Schedule Handbook, Fort Belvoir: Defense Acquisition University.
  4. CDC Unified Process Practices Guide: Earned Value Management, 2006, http://www2. cdc. gov/cdcup/ library/ practices_guides/CDC_UP_Earned_Value_Practices_Guide. pdf.
  5. Christensen, D. S. , 1994, A review of C/SCSC literature, Project Management Journal, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 32–39.
  6. Christensen, D. S. , Antolini, R. D. , and McKinney, J. W. , 1995, A Review of Estimate at Completion Research, Journal of Cost Analysis, Issue 2, pp. 41-62.
  7. Cukr, A. , 2001, When is an Over Target Baseline (OTB) Necessary?, The Measurable News, March 2001.
  8. Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement: Earned Value Management System, 2009, Subpart 234. 2, Department of Defense, Washington.
  9. Over Target Baseline and Over Target Schedule Handbook, 2003, Defense Acquisition University.
  10. Fleming, Q. W. , and Koppelman, J. M. , 2003, What's your project's real price tag? Harvard Business Review, Vol. 81, No. 9, pp. 20–22.
  11. Fleming, Q. W. , and Koppelman, J. M. , 2005. Earned Value Project Management, 3rd edition. Newton Square, PA, Project Management Institute (PMI). ISBN 1-93069989-1.
  12. Fleming, Q. W. , & Koppelman, J. M. , 2010. Earned value project management (4th ed. ), Newtown Square, PA, Project Management Institute.
  13. GSA FAR Secretariat, 2009, Federal Acquisition Regulation: Earned Value Management System, Subpart 34. 2, Washington.
  14. Hair, J. F. , Tatham, R. L. , Anderson, R. E. and Black, W. C. , 1998, Multivariate Data Analysis, 5th Edition, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
  15. Hosmer, D. W. , and Lemeshow, S. , 2000, Applied Logistic Regression, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
  16. Kim, E. H. ,Wells, W. G. , Jr. , and Duffey, M. R. , 2003, A model for effective implementation of earned value management methodology. International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 21, No. 5, pp. 375–382.
  17. Kristine, E. T. , 2010, Predicting Over Target Baseline (OTB) Acquisition Contracts, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio.
  18. Kristine, E. T. , and Edward D. W. , 2010, Predicting Over Target Baselines (OTBs), The Measurable News, The Magazine of the PMI, Issue 4.
  19. Ricardo,V. V. , 2003, Earned Value Analysis in the Control of Projects: Success or Failure?, AACE Transactions, CSC. 21. 1.
  20. Seyed H. I. , and Mansoureh, Z. , 2008, Application of Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Actual Cost of a Project to Improve Earned Value Management System, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 42, pp. 210-213.
  21. Seyed, H. I. , and Zahra, M. , 2008, Application of Data Mining Tools to Predicate Completion Time of a Project, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 42, pp. 204-209.
  22. Stephan V. , Mario, V. , 2006, A comparison of different project duration forecasting methods using earned value metrics, International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 24, pp. 289-302
  23. Suketu Nagrecha, 2002, An Introduction to Earned Value Analysis, A Report in http://www. pmiglc. org/COMM/ Articles/0410_nagrecha_eva-3. pdf.
  24. Tracy, S. P. , 2005, Estimate at Completion: A Regression Approach to Earned Value. MS Thesis, AFIT/GCA/ENC/05-04, Graduate School of Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology (AU), Wright Patterson AFB OH.
  25. Trahan, E. 2009, An Evaluation of Growth Models as Predictive Tools for Estimates at Completion (EAC) MS Thesis, AFIT/GFA/ENC/09-01, Graduate School of Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright Patterson AFB OH.
Index Terms

Computer Science
Information Sciences

Keywords

Earned Duration Method Earned Value Analysis Estimate At Completion Over Target Baseline Logistic Regression