Two activities in international trade, namely export and import activities. If the number of exports increases, the value of the domestic currency increases, and the rupiah exchange rate strengthens. The appropriate government policy in determining the economic activity in the plan is to know the priority industry in Indonesia. Forecasting is used to estimate what will happen in the future, based on data in the past. The Monte Carlo method is one of the forecasting methods that can be used. The Monte Carlo method calculates the possibilities that will occur by generating distribution values and intervals of each data that was processed. Random numbers for forecasting simulation have been collected as much as 250 random numbers. Forecasting will also result in the calculation of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to see how much an error was forecasting. The smallest MAPE value found in for forecasting the export value of Rubber, Rubber and Plastics Products with 0,53%.

Forecasting Monte Carlo Algorithm Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)